Words: Ashley Rigg
Published: 1st June 2011
*Europe leads list of worst performing global markets
European countries lead the list of the world’s worst performing property markets according to figures compiled by Global Property Guide.
The news appears bleakest in Spain, Portugal and the UK, where price falls appear to be accelerating, although the extent of the yearly declines in real house prices are still significantly less than those still be experienced in Ireland, Croatia and Bulgaria.
The European countries reporting the biggest rise in real house prices were Norway, Austria, France and Latvia.
The highest growth global markets were Hong Kong, Singapore and Israel, although the extent of the rises decelerated markedly on previous year.
Your view?
Do you agree with the the analysis of Global Property Guide in the area you work in?
It is important to remember that the figures are to the end of March 2011 so do not reflect the most recent developments. The data is also only as good as the national indicies it uses to gather the information.
My personal opinion is that Global Property Guide do a reasonable job of summarizing trends after they have developed. The figures are interesting but not the best data source for spotting market changes.
Inflation-adjusted house price changes by country
Country
|
year-on-year (%) Q1 2010
|
year-on-year (%) Q1 2011 |
| Hong Kong |
27.87 |
18.78 |
| Singapore |
23.98 |
8.21 |
| Israel |
15.66 |
7.81 |
| Norway |
7.65 |
6.86 |
| Taiwan |
18.46 |
6.81 |
Austria - Vienna
|
7.23 |
6.45 |
| Thailand |
-19.96 |
4.56 |
| Latvia - Riga |
-31.72 |
4.11 |
| Malaysia |
4.36 |
3.41 |
| Japan - Tokyo |
3.59 |
2.76 |
| France |
1.27 |
2.68 |
| Estonia - Tallinn |
-13.98 |
2.49 |
| Luxembourg |
-1.22 |
2.34 |
| Canada - 6 cities |
7.91 |
1.29 |
| Switzerland |
2.12 |
1.03 |
| Finland |
11.21 |
0.72 |
| Germany |
0.08 |
-0.07 |
| Sweden |
9.98 |
-0.51 |
| Turkey |
-2.91 |
-0.65 |
| Iceland |
-13.98 |
-0.81 |
| South Korea |
-0.01 |
-1.55 |
| Indonesia - 14 cities |
-1.08 |
-2.20 |
| Poland - Warsaw |
-11.05 |
-2.73 |
| Netherlands |
-5.18 |
-3.12 |
| Australia - 8 cities |
15.49 |
-3.42 |
| South Africa |
-1.60 |
-2.91 |
| China - Shanghai |
8.21 |
-3.55 |
| Slovenia |
-4.05 |
-3.78 |
| Lithuania |
-22.22 |
-4.37 |
| UK (Nationwide) |
5.49 |
-4.39 |
| New Zealand |
4.97 |
-4.79 |
| Slovak Republic |
-8.77 |
-5.60 |
| Croatia |
-14.28 |
-6.70 |
| Portugal |
3.32 |
-6.15 |
| US (FHFA) |
-5.11 |
-7.48 |
| Spain |
-5.75 |
-7.93 |
| Bulgaria |
-18.55 |
-10.20 |
Ireland
|
-13.64 |
-13.12 |
Nominal house price changes by country
Country
|
year-on-year (%) Q1 2010
|
year-on-year (%) Q1 2011 |
Hong Kong
|
30.32 |
23.50 |
| Singapore |
25.09 |
13.77 |
| Israel |
19.71 |
12.13 |
| Austria - Vienna |
8.73 |
9.52 |
| Norway |
10.81 |
8.36 |
| Latvia - Riga |
-34.30 |
8.23 |
| Taiwan |
19.97 |
8.18 |
| Estonia - Tallinn |
-13.75 |
8.01 |
| Thailand |
-16.98 |
7.71 |
| Malaysia |
5.63 |
6.43 |
| Luxembourg |
0.72 |
5.91 |
Indonesia - 14cities
|
2.54 |
4.48 |
| France |
2.60 |
4.53 |
| Finland |
11.39 |
3.96 |
| Canada - 6 cities |
9.64 |
3.92 |
| Turkey |
6.11 |
3.67 |
| South Kroea |
2.68 |
2.83 |
| Japan - Tokyo |
2.39 |
2.76 |
| Sweden |
10.74 |
2.09 |
| Germany |
0.89 |
2.01 |
| Switzerland |
3.26 |
1.63 |
| China - Shanghai |
10.58 |
1.34 |
| Iceland |
-7.56 |
1.19 |
| Poland - Warsaw |
-8.19 |
1.13 |
| South Africa |
3.67 |
0.73 |
| Australia - 8 cities |
18.82 |
-0.20 |
| UK (Nationwide) |
8.93 |
-0.44 |
| New Zealand |
7.12 |
-0.54 |
| Netherlands |
-4.34 |
-1.22 |
| Lithuania |
-22.54 |
-1.33 |
| Slovenia |
-2.69 |
-2.12 |
| Slovak Republic |
-8.28 |
-2.47 |
| Portugal |
3.59 |
-2.65 |
| Croatia |
-4.37 |
-4.61 |
| Spain |
-4.72 |
-4.72 |
| US (FHFA) |
-2.87 |
-5.50 |
| Bulgaria |
-17.81 |
-5.62 |
| Ukraine - Kiev |
-21.35 |
-7.45 |
| Ireland |
-16.57 |
-11.13 |
Source: Global Property Guide
User Comments
You may well be right about Croatia. Most published surveys on the market here are meaningless. Here in Istria, property of interest to foreign investors gets lumped in with the numerically much more numerous workers accommodation in places like Pula which is of almost no interest to foreigners. Similarly, overall figures for Croatia as a whole include whole regions like Slavonia and Lika which are of no interest to foreign investors and these have totally different price and demand structures.
Add to that the fact that the prices Croatians ask are often quite unrealistic and do not reflect the levels at which deals are really being done at, resulting in the vast majority of advertised prices being completely unreliable.
Most advertised prices here need to come down by at least 20% and a lot of land prices by 60% if they are to be realistic..
Cheers
Peter
Peter Ellis,
croatia property services